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A majority of these sandy coasts are interrupted by tidal inlets 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18-i.e., inlet-interrupted coasts 18, 19, forming an important sub-set of open sandy coasts.īoth oceanic (e.g., change in mean sea-level) and terrestrial (e.g., change in fluvial sediment supply) processes contribute to the long-term (50–100 year) evolution of inlet-interrupted coasts 18, 20, 21, 22. They are complex morphodynamic systems that are commonly expected to erode during the twenty-first century due to rising sea levels and reduced sediment supply 10, 11.
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Some of the most heavily utilised LECZ areas are fronted by open sandy coasts, which comprise about one-third of the world's coastline 9. LECZ are heavily utilised for a wide range of activities including navigation, tourism, agriculture, marine/ecosystem resources and services, waste disposal, and recreational activities 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8. The Low Elevation Coastal Zone (LECZ), defined globally as the areas within 10 m of mean sea-level 1, is home to approximately 600 million people today, a number that is expected to approach one billion by 2050 2. The methods used here need to be applied widely to support evidence-based coastal adaptation. This diverse range of response compared to earlier methods implies that erosion hazards at inlet-interrupted coasts have been inadequately characterised to date. However, the remaining systems are projected to accrete under the same scenario, reflecting fluvial influence.
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Under the RCP 8.5 scenario, retreat dominates (90% of cases) over the twenty-first century, with projections exceeding 100 m of retreat in two-thirds of cases. Here, we present novel projections of shoreline change adjacent to 41 tidal inlets around the world, using a probabilistic, reduced complexity, system-based model that considers catchment-estuary-coastal systems in a holistic way. To adequately assess these important changes, both oceanic (e.g., sea-level rise) and terrestrial (e.g., fluvial sediment supply) processes that govern the local sediment budget must be considered. Sandy coastlines adjacent to tidal inlets are highly dynamic and widespread landforms, where large changes are expected due to climatic and anthropogenic influences.
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